Seismologists suspect explosions damaged undersea pipelines that carry Russian gas

According to seismographic data from Sweden and Denmark, two underwater leaks that started in the Russian-owned Nord Stream gas pipelines on Monday were probably brought on by strong underwater explosions.

Björn Lund, head of the Swedish National Seismic Network at Uppsala University, told NPR in a phone interview that it is “quite evident from the seismic record that they are blasts.”
“These are neither earthquakes nor undersea landslides.”

Both the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines revealed abrupt pressure drops late on Monday, according to German and Danish officials, which they claimed could only be the result of a leak from sizable breaches in the pipelines.

Both pipelines were full of natural gas when the pressure dropped, but neither is now in use because Russia has stopped delivering gas via them.
Both pipelines are controlled by state-owned Russian energy behemoth Gazprom.

Mette Frederiksen, the prime minister of Denmark, stated on Tuesday that her country believed the disclosures were intentional.

According to Danish authorities, the Nord Stream 1 leak occurred northeast of Bornholm, an island in the Baltic Sea, and the Nord Stream 2 leak occurred southeast of the island.
According to unnamed security sources quoted by German media, it’s exceedingly unlikely for undersea, concrete-coated steel pipes to break on their own, thus it’s possible that the leaks are the result of sabotage.

According to Lund, the explosions on Monday were picked up by both the Swedish network and the Danish Seismic Network.
Swedish time, the first explosion happened at 2:03 am, and the second, bigger explosion happened at 7:04 pm.
According to preliminary calculations, this is at least equal to 100 kg of explosives, he claims.

According to Lund, the seismic data allowed for a precise position determination of the second blast, which was only a few kilometers away from the second leak’s reported location by the Swedish Maritime Authority.
He says, “We’re not exactly right, but we’re pretty near to the leakage area.”

No natural occurrence, according to Lund, could have produced such distinctive seismic traces less than 24 hours apart.

Nothing that I could think of would result in this, he claims.

Instead, he claims that the seismic occurrences were strikingly similar to what the network had previously picked up during Swedish navy training exercises using depth charges and underwater mines.
The Swedish military forces claim to have been informed of Lund’s results; they did not immediately reply to NPR’s email requesting comment.

Whoever might have carried out the potential sabotage is still unknown.
H.I. Sutton, a U.S. Naval Institute News contributor and expert on submarine warfare, made the observation on Twitter that divers or unmanned underwater vehicles may have reached the explosions’ relatively shallow depth.

The likelihood that the damage to the pipes was intentional was accepted by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday, but he added: “If it is verified, that’s certainly in no one’s interest.”

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